我国外贸上市公司财务危机预警研究
关键词 外贸上市公司 财务危机预警 Logistic回归模型 BP神经网络模型
毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要
Title Study on Financial Early-warning Systems of Listed Foreign Trade Companies——Comments on the impact of different financial crisis early-warning models
Abstract
With the fast process of global trade, China’s foreign trade companies have developed rapidly. However, since the second half of 2007, the global financial crisis has had a serious impact on foreign trade companies. In the post-crisis period, the financial risk、industry risk and the outbreak of European sovereign debt crisis are becoming increasingly prominent. All of these constitute a severe challenge to foreign trade companies. So it’s an important issue on how to develop a scientific and effective crisis early-warning system to forecast crisis and prevent risk, which related to the survival and development of foreign trade companies. This article includes six parts. We discuss from the related concept of financial crisis. Combined with the financial status of the listed foreign trade companies, we will establish different crisis early-warning models and test the accuracy of the models to comment the impact of different models. Through the analysis of financial conditions, it’s important for companies’ long-term development to establish a crisis early-warning system.
Keywords Listed Foreign Trade Companies
Early Warning of Financial Crisis
Logistic Regression Model BP Neural Network Model
目 次
1 绪论 1
1．1 研究背景 1
1．2 研究意义 1
1．3 研究思路及研究方法 1
2 相关概念界定及文献综述 3
2．1 相关概念界定 3
2．2 财务危机预警研究综述 4
3 外贸上市公司财务风险及危机预警 6
3．1 外贸上市公司财务风险 6
3．2 我国外贸上市公司财务现状 7
3．3 外贸上市公司财务危机预警模型述评 7
3．4 外贸上市公司财务危机预警模型选择 9
4 外贸上市公司财务危机预警实证研究 11
4．1 样本数据选取 11
4．2 基于因子分析的Logistic回归模型研究分析 12
4．3 BP神经网络模型研究分析 16
4．4 两种财务预警模型的比较 19
5 研究结论及建议 20
5．1 研究结论及局限性 20
5．2 研究建议 21
结 论 22
致 谢 23
参 考 文 献 24
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